ELECTION UPDATE – AT 9:07 A.M. ET:  "Ah," sane Democrats must be dreaming, "to have FDR, Truman or Kennedy at a time like this."  Trouble is, those guys wouldn't recognize today's Democratic Party.

There's more bad news for the Dems this morning.  At some point, one begins to have sympathy.  Not too much, but some.  From The Politico:

Democrats are already expected to lose seats in the November midterm elections, but now there's even more bad news for the party that controls Congress and the White House.

A study released Tuesday shows Republicans boast a voter turnout record so far this cycle that, compared with Democrats, is unprecedented for a midterm election in the past 80 years.

A higher average percentage of Republicans than Democrats turned out for their respective statewide primaries this year for the first time in a midterm election since 1930, according to Curtis Gans, the director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate.

Gans is a well-regarded guy.  I'd take him seriously. 

The study shows that Republican turnout averaged 10.5 percent in statewide primaries — the highest it has been in a midterm election since 1970. Meanwhile, Democratic turnout was about 8.3 percent in statewide primaries — the lowest percentage on record for an election year in which there was not a presidential contest...

...Not only did a higher percentage of eligible GOP voters cast their ballots in statewide primaries, but 4 million more Republicans than Democrats voted in those races so far this year. Of the 30 million people who have voted in 35 statewide primaries so far this cycle, more than 17 million were Republicans and almost 13 million were Democrats.

COMMENT:  Primary participation is a pretty reliable guide to turnout on election day.  It's universally assumed that Republicans just have far more enthusiasm this year than Democrats, and more incentive to go to the polls. 

What can change this outlook is a fear campaign by Democrats, targeted at their base.  People can be scared into voting.  Even the dead can be scared into voting, as Chicago shows us.  "They'll take away your mother's Social Security" is the opening gun of most Democratic fear campaigns.  Watch it get fired in the next few weeks.

September 9, 2010